Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Is McCain Making a Move?

Obama 49.1%, McCain 44.1%

Released: 11-01-2008

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Next Release: 11-02-08, 1:00AM

UTICA, New York -- Republican John McCain made a small gain against Democrat Barack Obama and has pulled back within the margin of error, now trailing Obama by five points, 49.1% to 44.1%, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking telephone poll shows.

Almost two days worth of the polling -- or about half of the current sample in the three-day rolling poll of likely voters nationwide, was conducted after Obama's 30-minute commercial aired Wednesday evening. There is no evidence it helped him, as he has dropped 1.1 points in the last two days, while McCain has gained 0.8 points during the same period.

Pollster John Zogby: "Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all. "Obama's lead among women declined, and it looks like it is occurring because McCain is solidifying the support of conservative women, which is something we saw last time McCain picked up in the polls. If McCain has a good day tomorrow, we will eliminate Obama's good day three days ago, and we could really see some tightening in this rolling average. But for now, hold on."

Week Four Three-Day Tracking Poll	10-31	10-30	10-29	10-28	10-27
Obama	49.1%	50.1%	50.2%	49.1%	49.0%
McCain	44.1%	43.1%	43.3%	44.4%	44.7%
Others/Not sure	6.8%	6.8%	6.5%	6.5%	6.3%

Week Three Three-Day Tracking Poll	10-26	10-25	10-24	10-23	10-22	10-21	10-20
Obama	49.9%	49.4%	51.1%	51.3%	52.2%	51.6%	50.3%
McCain	45.1%	44.1%	41.6%	41.0%	40.3%	42.0%	42.4%
Others/Not sure	4.9%	6.6%	7.3%	7.7%	7.5%	6.4%	7.3%

Week Two Three-Day Tracking Poll	10-19	10-18	10-17	10-16	10-15	10-14	10-13
Obama	49.8%	47.8%	48.3%	48.7%	49.0%	48.2%	49.0%
McCain	44.4%	45.1%	44.4%	43.7%	43.5%	44.4%	42.8%
Others/Not sure	5.8%	7.1%	7.3%	7.6%	7.5%	7.4%	8.2%

Week One Three-Day Tracking Poll	10-12	10-11	10-10	10-9	10-8	10-7	10-6
Obama	47.9%	48.9%	47.6%	47.6%	47.8%	47.1%	47.7%
McCain	43.6%	42.8%	43.8%	43.4%	44.2%	45.2%	45.3%
Others/Not sure	8.5%	8.3%	8.6%	9.0%	8.0%	7.7%	7.0%

The three-day rolling tracking poll included 1,200 likely voters -- about 400 interviews per 24-hour polling period (each polling period begins and ends at 5 p.m. daily) -- and was conducted Oct. 29-31, 2008. It carries a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using live telephone interviewers in Zogby's in-house call center in Upstate New York.

Daily Tracking Continues

This daily tracking telephone poll will continue each day until the Nov. 4 election. With each new day of responses of likely voters that are folded into the poll, the oldest third of the survey sample is removed, so the poll "tracks" changes in voter attitudes following events and developments in the race. Keep up-to-date every day by visiting www.zogby.com.

The sample is [1200 likely voters] interviews with approximately [25] questions asked. Samples are randomly drawn from telephone cd’s of national listed sample.   Zogby International surveys employ sampling strategies in which selection probabilities are proportional to population size within area codes and exchanges. Up to six calls are made to reach a sampled phone number. Cooperation rates are calculated using one of AAPOR’s approved methodologies[1] and are comparable to other professional public-opinion surveys conducted using similar sampling strategies.[2] Weighting by [region, party, age, race, religion, gender] is used to adjust for non-response.  The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

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